North Carolinians have a problem to solve and a decision to make. How will the state achieve carbon neutrality, accommodate Democrat Governor Roy Cooper’s Executive Order for 1.25 million electric vehicles, and meet statutory requirements for reliability and affordability? To meet these numbers will require “the largest expansion of electric infrastructure since electrification began” more than 100 years ago. The John Locke Foundation turned to AOER to help determine a solution.
Two proposed scenarios meet the state’s emissions targets set by H.B. 951, but only one helps working families. According to our modeling, the renewable plan, favored by former Gov. Cooper and newly elected Governor Josh Stein (D), relies on an unprecedented expansion of solar, wind, and battery storage—requiring over 6,600 MW of new solar capacity and 426 times more onshore wind than what currently exists. This would dramatically increase energy infrastructure, consume vast amounts of land, and significantly raise costs for ratepayers.
By contrast, the nuclear scenario leverages advanced nuclear reactors while maintaining existing natural gas capacity to ensure reliability. Nuclear energy provides a steady, carbon-free power supply without the extreme land use and cost burdens associated with wind and solar.
Complicating the issue is Gov. Cooper’s Executive Order 246, which imposes significant costs on consumers through higher vehicle prices and infrastructure expenses yet fails to provide a feasible plan for funding or implementation.
Additionally, our modeling found the state’s push for zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) could cost between $16.5 billion and $30.5 billion, requiring substantial investments in charging infrastructure and electricity generation.
North Carolina has made significant emissions reductions, cutting power sector CO2 emissions by 51% since 2005, thanks to replacing coal with natural gas. Continuing on this path with nuclear and natural gas offers a more cost-effective, reliable, and sustainable energy future.
Key Takeaway
Policymakers must prioritize affordability and reliability in energy policy decisions. Overbuilding renewables without considering cost or reliability means higher electricity bills, land overuse, and economic slowdowns. A balanced approach, with nuclear and natural gas, ensures North Carolina’s energy future remains affordable and dependable.
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